Mallorca II v Elche II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mallorca IIDrawElche II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Elche II 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elche II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mallorca II 30%, draw 28%, Elche II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Mallorca II v Elche IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mallorca II win30%

Draw28%

Elche II win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mallorca II

Elche II

7Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elche ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market30%

Us42%

~~Market~~30%

We make Elche II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mallorca II v Elche II~~1.00 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~15 v 12

~~The market · Elche II win~~30% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elche II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mallorca II win	30%	43%	−13
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Elche II win	42%	30%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	56%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	65%	74%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	31%	−12
Mallorca II or draw	58%	70%	−12
Mallorca II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Elche II clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.9 13.2 8.2 3.5 1 10.6 12.9 8.0 3.4 2 5.3 6.4 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mallorca II down, Elche II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mallorca II at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Elche II away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Mallorca II, 1.25 for Elche II. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAL 2–0 ELC · ELC 3–0 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

MALLORCA II

DWLLDL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

ELCHE II

DLWLLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellonense	7	+6	15
3	Deportiva Minera	7	+4	14
4	Castellón II	6	+6	12
5	La Nucía	6	+4	12
6	Cieza	6	+6	11
7	Orihuela	8	−5	11
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Yeclano	8	−1	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	7	−2	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Valencia II	7	−5	5
17	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4