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Lorca Deportiva v Atlético Baleares

Lorca Deportiva

2–2Full time

Atlético Baleares

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Lorca Deportiva 2–2 Atlético Baleares LORCA DEPORTIVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lorca Deportiva win~~36%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.722

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lorca Deportiva win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lorca Deportiva 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–35
1′KICK-OFF Lorca Deportiva v Atlético Baleares
6′A goal for Lorca Deportiva on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
6′We said Lorca Deportiva at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Atlético Baleares
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 65% now
8′J. Naranjo scores for Lorca Deportiva on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
36′Lorca Deportiva score on 35′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
36′We said Lorca Deportiva at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Lorca Deportiva 2–0 Atlético Baleares
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
39′34′: J. Pedrosa on the scoresheet for Lorca Deportiva, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Lorca Deportiva 2–0 Atlético Baleares
46′SECOND HALF Lorca Deportiva 2–0 Atlético Baleares
54′We said Lorca Deportiva at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
82′Atlético Baleares find the net on 82′. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Lorca Deportiva 2–1 Atlético Baleares
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–7–0
87′Atlético Baleares pull one back on 81′ through R. Caballero. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
92′A goal for Atlético Baleares on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 3–95–2
92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+2' Atlético Baleares
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Lorca Deportiva 2–2 Atlético Baleares
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Lorca Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 3% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Lorca Deportiva win 3%)
93′We said Lorca Deportiva at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–96–2
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 1–97–1
95′Lorca Deportiva are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 1–97–1
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Lorca Deportiva
FTFULL TIME Lorca Deportiva 2–2 Atlético Baleares
FTLorca Deportiva 2–2 Atlético Baleares · Lorca Deportiva win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lorca Deportiva just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lorca Deportiva 36%, draw 28%, Atlético Baleares 35%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Lorca Deportiva v Atlético BalearesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lorca Deportiva win36%

Draw28%

Atlético Baleares win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lorca Deportiva

Atlético Baleares

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lorca deportiva winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market37%

Us36%

~~Market~~37%

We make Lorca Deportiva a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lorca Deportiva v Atlético Baleares~~1.17 – 1.15

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~10 v 14

~~The market · Lorca Deportiva win~~37% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lorca Deportiva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lorca Deportiva win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Atlético Baleares win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	21%	0
Lorca Deportiva or draw	65%	68%	−3
Lorca Deportiva clean sheet	32%	–	–
Atlético Baleares clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 11.3 6.5 2.5 1 11.5 13.0 7.4 2.9 2 6.7 7.6 4.3 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lorca Deportiva down, Atlético Baleares across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Lorca Deportiva at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Atlético Baleares away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Lorca Deportiva, 1.15 for Atlético Baleares. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

LORCA DEPORTIVA

DLDWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

ATLÉTICO BALEARES

LDLDWD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
9	Intercity	6	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
11	Elche II	6	−2	7
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6
15	Poblense	6	−3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4