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La Nucía v Lorca Deportiva

La Nucía

1–3Full time

Lorca Deportiva

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

La Nucía 1–3 Lorca Deportiva LA NUCÍA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said La Nucía win~~39%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.698

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said La Nucía win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: La Nucía 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
2′Little has changed for our model: La Nucía 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
42′La Nucía ahead on 31′ through J. Carlos. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–6
45′La Nucía ahead on 31′ through J. Carlos. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
48′We said La Nucía at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
52′We said La Nucía at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
72′66′ and it is 1–2: Lorca Deportiva have scored. 1–2 · 2–16–82
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Lorca Deportiva win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Nucía win 2%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' La Nucía win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Lorca Deportiva win 5%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Lorca Deportiva win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Nucía win 2%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' La Nucía win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Lorca Deportiva win 5%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Lorca Deportiva win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Nucía win 2%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' La Nucía win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Lorca Deportiva win 5%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' La Nucía win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Lorca Deportiva win 5%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Lorca Deportiva win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Nucía win 2%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' La Nucía win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Lorca Deportiva win 5%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' La Nucía win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Lorca Deportiva win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was La Nucía win 2%)
88′Lorca Deportiva find the net on 79′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′Lorca Deportiva ahead on 80′ through D. Talaveron. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' La Nucía 1–4 Lorca Deportiva
FTFULL TIME La Nucía 1–3 Lorca Deportiva
FTLa Nucía 1–3 Lorca Deportiva · La Nucía win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

La Nucía win39%

Draw29%

Lorca Deportiva win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

La Nucía

Lorca Deportiva

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · la nucía winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market48%

Us39%

~~Market~~48%

We make La Nucía a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · la nucía win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
La Nucía win	39%	48%	−8
Draw	29%	29%	−1
Lorca Deportiva win	32%	23%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	39%	39%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	44%	0
Over 1.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
La Nucía or draw	68%	77%	−9
La Nucía clean sheet	36%	–	–
Lorca Deportiva clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 11.0 11.1 5.8 2.1 1 12.8 12.9 6.7 2.4 2 7.6 7.7 4.0 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+La Nucía down, Lorca Deportiva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

La Nucía at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lorca Deportiva away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for La Nucía, 1.05 for Lorca Deportiva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

LA NUCÍA

LWWWWL0–3 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

LORCA DEPORTIVA

DLDWL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1