Intercity v Real Murcia II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Intercity are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Intercity 53%, draw 25%, Real Murcia II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Intercity v Real Murcia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Intercity win53%

Draw25%

Real Murcia II win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

VenueCamp Municipal Antonio Solana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Intercity

Real Murcia II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Intercity	6	0	9
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · intercity winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

53% The market63%

Us53%

~~Market~~63%

We make Intercity a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Intercity v Real Murcia II~~1.62 – 0.95

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~9 v 18

~~The market · Intercity win~~63% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Intercity win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Intercity win	53%	63%	−10
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Real Murcia II win	22%	14%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Intercity or draw	78%	86%	−8
Intercity clean sheet	39%	–	–
Real Murcia II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.0 7.4 3.5 1 12.4 11.6 5.5 2 10.0 9.3 4.4 3 5.4 5.0 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Intercity down, Real Murcia II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Intercity at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Real Murcia II away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Intercity, 0.95 for Real Murcia II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

INTERCITY

WDDWDL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

REAL MURCIA II

LLLWLD1–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
9	Intercity	6	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
11	Elche II	6	−2	7
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6
15	Poblense	6	−3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4