Intercity v Castellonense prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Intercity 0–2 Castellonense INTERCITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Intercity win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.888

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Intercity win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Intercity was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Intercity v Castellonense
18′Castellonense find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–60
18′We said Intercity at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–60
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Intercity 0–1 Castellonense
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Intercity win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Castellonense win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Intercity win 40%)
26′We said Intercity at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Intercity win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Intercity 0–1 Castellonense
46′We said Intercity at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
46′SECOND HALF Intercity 0–1 Castellonense
49′A goal for Intercity on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–44–25
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Intercity 1–1 Castellonense
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Intercity win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Castellonense win 68%)
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Intercity
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Intercity win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Castellonense win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 44%)
65′We said Intercity at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Intercity win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
81′A goal for Castellonense on 81′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Intercity 0–2 Castellonense
FTFULL TIME Intercity 0–2 Castellonense
FTIntercity 0–2 Castellonense · Intercity win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Intercity are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Intercity 42%, draw 27%, Castellonense 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Intercity v CastellonenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Intercity win42%

Draw27%

Castellonense win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

VenueCamp Municipal Antonio Solana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Intercity

Castellonense

13Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
11	Intercity	6	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · intercity winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Intercity a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Intercity v Castellonense~~1.36 – 1.11

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~11 v 3

~~The market · Intercity win~~49% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Intercity win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Intercity win	42%	49%	−7
Draw	27%	27%	0
Castellonense win	31%	24%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Intercity or draw	69%	76%	−7
Intercity clean sheet	33%	–	–
Castellonense clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.8 9.5 5.3 1 11.6 12.5 7.0 2.6 2 7.8 8.4 4.7 3 3.6 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Intercity down, Castellonense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Intercity at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Castellonense away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Intercity, 1.11 for Castellonense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

INTERCITY

WDDWDL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

CASTELLONENSE

WWWLWL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4