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Deportiva Minera v Yeclano

Deportiva Minera

2–0Full time

Yeclano

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Deportiva Minera 2–0 Yeclano DEPORTIVA MINERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportiva Minera win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.480

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportiva Minera win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportiva Minera 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Deportiva Minera v Yeclano
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Deportiva Minera win 37%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Deportiva Minera win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportiva Minera 1–0 Yeclano
46′SECOND HALF Deportiva Minera 1–0 Yeclano
47′A goal for Deportiva Minera on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
47′Deportiva Minera score on 47′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′We said Deportiva Minera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Deportiva Minera 1–0 Yeclano
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Deportiva Minera win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Deportiva Minera win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 44%)
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Deportiva Minera 2–0 Yeclano
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Deportiva Minera win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
48′We said Deportiva Minera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
53′Deportiva Minera find the net on 53′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Deportiva Minera 3–0 Yeclano
54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 54' Deportiva Minera
80′We said Deportiva Minera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Deportiva Minera 2–0 Yeclano
FTDeportiva Minera 2–0 Yeclano · Deportiva Minera win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportiva Minera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportiva Minera 43%, draw 28%, Yeclano 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Deportiva Minera v YeclanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportiva Minera win43%

Draw28%

Yeclano win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportiva Minera

Yeclano

13Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportiva minera winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Deportiva Minera a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportiva Minera v Yeclano~~1.29 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~6 v 7

~~The market · Deportiva Minera win~~44% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportiva Minera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportiva Minera win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Yeclano win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Deportiva Minera or draw	72%	74%	−2
Deportiva Minera clean sheet	38%	–	–
Yeclano clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.6 10.2 5.0 1 13.3 12.8 6.3 2.1 2 8.5 8.2 4.0 3 3.7 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportiva Minera down, Yeclano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportiva Minera at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Yeclano away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Deportiva Minera, 0.98 for Yeclano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~YEC 0–1 DEP · DEP 1–0 YEC · DEP 2–2 YEC · YEC 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

DEPORTIVA MINERA

WDDLWW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–2

YECLANO

DLWDDD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4