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Deportiva Minera v Castellonense

Deportiva Minera

3–2Full time

Castellonense

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Deportiva Minera 3–2 Castellonense DEPORTIVA MINERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportiva Minera win~~39%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportiva Minera win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportiva Minera 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Deportiva Minera v Castellonense
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Deportiva Minera 1–0 Castellonense
13′A goal for Deportiva Minera on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
15′A goal for Deportiva Minera on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–10
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
22′We said Deportiva Minera at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–9
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Deportiva Minera 1–1 Castellonense
26′23′ and it is 1–1: Castellonense have scored. 1–1 · 35–35–29
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
28′23′ and it is 1–1: Castellonense have scored. 1–1 · 35–36–29
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Deportiva Minera 2–1 Castellonense
40′Deportiva Minera find the net on 39′. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–7
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Deportiva Minera win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportiva Minera 2–1 Castellonense
45′⚽ GOAL · 9' Deportiva Minera 2–1 Castellonense · Ismael
45′⚽ GOAL · 23' Deportiva Minera 2–1 Castellonense · I. Jove
45′⚽ GOAL · 39' Deportiva Minera 2–1 Castellonense
46′SECOND HALF Deportiva Minera 2–1 Castellonense
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Deportiva Minera 3–1 Castellonense
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Deportiva Minera 3–2 Castellonense
FTFULL TIME Deportiva Minera 3–2 Castellonense
FTDeportiva Minera 3–2 Castellonense · Deportiva Minera win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportiva Minera win39%

Draw29%

Castellonense win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportiva Minera

Castellonense

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportiva minera winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

39% The market52%

Us39%

~~Market~~52%

We make Deportiva Minera a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportiva minera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportiva Minera win	39%	52%	−12
Draw	29%	27%	+1
Castellonense win	32%	21%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Deportiva Minera or draw	68%	79%	−11
Deportiva Minera clean sheet	36%	–	–
Castellonense clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 11.0 11.2 5.9 2.1 1 12.7 13.0 6.8 2.4 2 7.6 7.7 4.0 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportiva Minera down, Castellonense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Deportiva Minera at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Castellonense away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Deportiva Minera, 1.04 for Castellonense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

DEPORTIVA MINERA

WDDLW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

CASTELLONENSE

WWWLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1