Cieza v Valencia II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Cieza are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cieza 49%, draw 25%, Valencia II 26%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Cieza v Valencia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Cieza win49%

Draw25%

Valencia II win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cieza

Valencia II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cieza winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Cieza a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cieza v Valencia II~~1.60 – 1.08

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~5 v 17

~~The market · Cieza win~~47% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cieza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cieza win	49%	47%	+2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Valencia II win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Cieza or draw	74%	75%	−1
Cieza clean sheet	34%	–	–
Valencia II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.1 7.5 4.1 1 11.0 11.7 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 9.2 5.0 3 4.7 4.9 2.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cieza down, Valencia II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Cieza at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Valencia II away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Cieza, 1.08 for Valencia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

CIEZA

DWLDWW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–1

VALENCIA II

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4