Cieza v Intercity prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Cieza 3–1 Intercity CIEZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cieza win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cieza win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Cieza v Intercity
2′Much as we predicted: Cieza was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
3′Much as we predicted: Cieza was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Cieza 1–0 Intercity
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cieza 2–0 Intercity
22′A goal for Cieza on 21′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
24′A goal for Cieza on 21′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cieza win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cieza 2–1 Intercity
45′HALF-TIME Cieza 2–1 Intercity
45′⚽ GOAL · 16' Cieza 2–1 Intercity · Pitu
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Cieza 2–1 Intercity · R. Ortiz
46′SECOND HALF Cieza 2–1 Intercity
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Cieza 3–1 Intercity
FTFULL TIME Cieza 3–1 Intercity
FTCieza 3–1 Intercity · Cieza win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cieza win45%

Draw28%

Intercity win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cieza

Intercity

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cieza winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Cieza a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cieza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cieza win	45%	45%	0
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Intercity win	27%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Cieza or draw	73%	74%	−2
Cieza clean sheet	39%	–	–
Intercity clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.3 9.7 4.7 1 13.4 12.6 6.1 2 8.9 8.4 4.0 3 4.0 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cieza down, Intercity across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cieza at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Intercity away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Cieza, 0.96 for Intercity. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

CIEZA

DWLDW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–0

INTERCITY

WDDWD2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1