Castellonense v La Nucía prediction · Segunda División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Castellonense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castellonense 56%, draw 23%, La Nucía 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Castellonense v La NucíaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Castellonense win56%

Draw23%

La Nucía win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:45

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castellonense

La Nucía

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castellonense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

56% The market34%

Us56%

~~Market~~34%

We make Castellonense a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 22 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castellonense v La Nucía~~1.75 – 0.94

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~3 v 4

~~The market · Castellonense win~~34% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Castellonense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castellonense win	56%	34%	+22
Draw	23%	31%	−8
La Nucía win	20%	35%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	50%	41%	+9
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	66%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	28%	23%	+5
Castellonense or draw	80%	65%	+15
Castellonense clean sheet	40%	–	–
La Nucía clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.1 6.5 3.1 1 11.9 11.0 5.2 2 10.3 9.4 4.4 3 6.0 5.5 2.6 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castellonense down, La Nucía across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castellonense at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). La Nucía away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Castellonense, 0.94 for La Nucía. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAS 2–0 LAN · LAN 0–2 CAS · LAN 1–2 CAS · CAS 0–0 LAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

CASTELLONENSE

WWWLWL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

LA NUCÍA

WWWWLL1–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
9	Intercity	6	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
11	Elche II	6	−2	7
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6
15	Poblense	6	−3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4