Castellón II v La Nucía prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Castellón IIDrawLa Nucía

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Castellón II 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Castellón II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castellón II 57%, draw 20%, La Nucía 23%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Castellón II v La NucíaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Castellón II win57%

Draw20%

La Nucía win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castellón II

La Nucía

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castellón ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market43%

Us57%

~~Market~~43%

We make Castellón II a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castellón II v La Nucía~~2.20 – 1.33

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~2 v 4

~~The market · Castellón II win~~43% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Castellón II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castellón II win	57%	43%	+14
Draw	20%	27%	−7
La Nucía win	23%	30%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	68%	55%	+13
Both teams to score	64%	58%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	76%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	47%	35%	+12
Castellón II or draw	77%	70%	+7
Castellón II clean sheet	27%	–	–
La Nucía clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 4.1 2.7 1 6.6 8.6 5.7 2.6 2 7.1 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 5.2 6.6 4.4 4 2.9 3.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castellón II down, La Nucía across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castellón II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). La Nucía away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Castellón II, 1.33 for La Nucía. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAN 2–0 CAS · CAS 2–4 LAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

CASTELLÓN II

LWWWWL1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

LA NUCÍA

WWWWLL1–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4