Castellón II v Deportiva Minera prediction · Segunda División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Castellón II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castellón II 48%, draw 23%, Deportiva Minera 30%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Castellón II v Deportiva MineraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Castellón II win48%

Draw23%

Deportiva Minera win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castellón II

Deportiva Minera

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castellón ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Castellón II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castellón II v Deportiva Minera~~1.85 – 1.42

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~2 v 6

~~The market · Castellón II win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Castellón II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castellón II win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Deportiva Minera win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	52%	+11
Both teams to score	63%	57%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	41%	31%	+10
Castellón II or draw	70%	69%	+1
Castellón II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Deportiva Minera clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.1 5.5 3.9 1 7.1 9.9 7.0 3.3 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.0 5.6 3.9 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castellón II down, Deportiva Minera across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Castellón II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportiva Minera away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Castellón II, 1.42 for Deportiva Minera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

CASTELLÓN II

LWWWWL1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

DEPORTIVA MINERA

WDDLWW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
9	Intercity	6	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
11	Elche II	6	−2	7
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6
15	Poblense	6	−3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4