Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 › Atlético Baleares v Mallorca II

Atlético Baleares v Mallorca II

Atlético Baleares

2–2Full time

Mallorca II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Balear

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Atlético Baleares 2–2 Mallorca II ATLÉTICO BALEARES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Baleares win~~67%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.085

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.932

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Baleares win at 67%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Baleares 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–21–12
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
40′We said Atlético Baleares at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–34–13
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Atlético Baleares 1–0 Mallorca II
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Atlético Baleares 1–0 Mallorca II
45′43′ and it is 1–0: Atlético Baleares have scored. 1–0 · 88–11–2
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Baleares 1–0 Mallorca II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 53% now
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Baleares 1–0 Mallorca II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Atlético Baleares win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atlético Baleares 2–0 Mallorca II
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Atlético Baleares 2–1 Mallorca II
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Atlético Baleares 2–2 Mallorca II
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Atlético Baleares 2–2 Mallorca II
FTFULL TIME Atlético Baleares 2–2 Mallorca II
FTAtlético Baleares 2–2 Mallorca II · Atlético Baleares win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atlético Baleares win67%

Draw21%

Mallorca II win12%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueEstadio Balear

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlético Baleares

Mallorca II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético baleares winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

67% The market58%

Us67%

~~Market~~58%

We make Atlético Baleares a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlético baleares win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Baleares win	67%	58%	+8
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Mallorca II win	12%	17%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Atlético Baleares or draw	88%	83%	+4
Atlético Baleares clean sheet	52%	–	–
Mallorca II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 8.0 5.2 1 14.7 9.5 3.2 2 13.8 8.9 2.9 3 8.8 5.6 4 4.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Baleares down, Mallorca II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Baleares at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mallorca II away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Atlético Baleares, 0.66 for Mallorca II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAL 0–3 ATL · ATL 3–0 MAL

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

ATLÉTICO BALEARES

WLDLDW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–1

MALLORCA II

LDDWLL0–5 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1