Atlético Baleares v Alcoyano prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlético BalearesDrawAlcoyano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético Baleares 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Baleares are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Baleares 45%, draw 30%, Alcoyano 25%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Baleares v AlcoyanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Baleares win45%

Draw30%

Alcoyano win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Balear

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Baleares

Alcoyano

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético baleares winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Atlético Baleares a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Baleares v Alcoyano~~1.22 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~13 v 8

~~The market · Atlético Baleares win~~40% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético Baleares win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Baleares win	45%	40%	+5
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Alcoyano win	25%	29%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	39%	46%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−5
Atlético Baleares or draw	75%	71%	+4
Atlético Baleares clean sheet	44%	–	–
Alcoyano clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.3 10.7 4.4 1 15.9 12.8 5.3 2 9.6 7.8 3.2 3 4.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Baleares down, Alcoyano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Baleares at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Alcoyano away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Atlético Baleares, 0.82 for Alcoyano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALC 0–0 ATL · ATL 1–1 ALC · ALC 1–1 ATL · ATL 2–1 ALC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

ATLÉTICO BALEARES

DLDWDD2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

ALCOYANO

DLWWWL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4