Alcoyano v Elche II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Alcoyano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcoyano 46%, draw 30%, Elche II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Alcoyano v Elche IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Alcoyano win46%

Draw30%

Elche II win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

VenueEstadio El Collao

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcoyano

Elche II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
12	Elche II	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alcoyano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

46% The market58%

Us46%

~~Market~~58%

We make Alcoyano a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcoyano v Elche II~~1.19 – 0.77

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~8 v 12

~~The market · Alcoyano win~~58% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alcoyano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcoyano win	46%	58%	−12
Draw	30%	26%	+4
Elche II win	24%	17%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Both teams to score	37%	44%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	58%	69%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	14%	24%	−10
Alcoyano or draw	76%	83%	−7
Alcoyano clean sheet	46%	–	–
Elche II clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.6%

0123450 14.3 10.8 4.2 1 16.6 12.7 4.9 2 9.9 7.5 2.9 3 4.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcoyano down, Elche II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Alcoyano at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Elche II away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Alcoyano, 0.77 for Elche II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

ALCOYANO

DLWWWL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

ELCHE II

DLWLLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4