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Utebo v UD Logroñés II

Utebo

1–1Full time

UD Logroñés II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Utebo 1–1 UD Logroñés II UTEBO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Utebo win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.989

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Utebo win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Utebo 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
1′KICK-OFF Utebo v UD Logroñés II
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
40′A goal for UD Logroñés II on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–28–51
40′We said Utebo at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–28–51
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 21–28–51
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Utebo 0–1 UD Logroñés II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' UD Logroñés II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Utebo win 50%)
43′We said Utebo at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
45′HALF-TIME Utebo 0–1 UD Logroñés II
46′SECOND HALF Utebo 0–1 UD Logroñés II
52′PENALTY MISSED · 52' Utebo
53′We said Utebo at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
63′We said Utebo at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
65′Utebo score on 65′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–53–13
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Utebo 1–1 UD Logroñés II
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 34% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was UD Logroñés II win 66%)
66′We said Utebo at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–54–13
66′Utebo find the net on 66′. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Utebo 2–1 UD Logroñés II
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 87% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Utebo win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 54%)
67′We said Utebo at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Utebo
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Utebo win 88%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Utebo win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
92′We said Utebo at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Utebo 1–1 UD Logroñés II
FTUtebo 1–1 UD Logroñés II · Utebo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Utebo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Utebo 61%, draw 23%, UD Logroñés II 16%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Utebo v UD Logroñés IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Utebo win61%

Draw23%

UD Logroñés II win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Utebo

UD Logroñés II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	UD Logroñés II	7	−4	8
14	Utebo	7	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · utebo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Utebo a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Utebo v UD Logroñés II~~1.89 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Utebo win

Published at 58%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utebo win	61%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
UD Logroñés II win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Utebo or draw	84%	–	–
Utebo clean sheet	44%	–	–
UD Logroñés II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 5.1 2.4 1 11.9 10.8 4.3 2 11.5 9.2 3.9 3 7.3 5.8 2.4 4 3.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Utebo down, UD Logroñés II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,592 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utebo at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). UD Logroñés II away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Utebo, 0.83 for UD Logroñés II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UTE 0–0 UDL · UDL 3–2 UTE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

UTEBO

DWLDDL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

UD LOGROÑÉS II

DLWLWL0–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Terrassa	7	+5	14
4	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
5	Ebro	7	+4	13
6	Olot	7	+4	12
7	Manresa	7	+6	11
8	Girona II	7	+1	10
9	Reddis	7	−2	10
10	Tudelano	7	−1	8
11	Peña Sport	7	−2	8
12	UD Logroñés II	7	−4	8
13	Barbastro	7	−1	7
14	Utebo	7	−1	7
15	Náxara	6	−6	5
16	Calamocha	7	−12	4
17	SD Logroñés	7	−8	3
18	Arnedo	7	−13	2