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Utebo v Arnedo

Utebo

0–0Full time

Arnedo

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Utebo 0–0 Arnedo UTEBO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Utebo win~~77%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.857

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Utebo win at 77%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Utebo 77% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
2′KICK-OFF Utebo v Arnedo
45′HALF-TIME Utebo 0–0 Arnedo
47′SECOND HALF Utebo 0–0 Arnedo
FTFULL TIME Utebo 0–0 Arnedo
FTUtebo 0–0 Arnedo · Utebo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Utebo win77%

Draw15%

Arnedo win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · utebo winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

77% The market51%

Us77%

~~Market~~51%

We make Utebo a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 25 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · utebo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utebo win	77%	51%	+25
Draw	15%	26%	−12
Arnedo win	9%	22%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	67%	51%	+15
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	74%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	46%	32%	+14
Utebo or draw	91%	78%	+14
Utebo clean sheet	47%	–	–
Arnedo clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 3.8 2.4 1 8.3 6.9 2.6 2 10.8 8.2 3.2 3 9.5 7.1 2.8 4 6.6 4.8 5 3.9 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Utebo down, Arnedo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,573 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utebo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Arnedo away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.76 goals for Utebo, 0.77 for Arnedo. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UTE 1–0 ARN · ARN 1–1 UTE

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

UTEBO

LDDWLD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

ARNEDO

LLLLLL1–4 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	5	+11	13
2	Osasuna II	5	+6	12
3	Olot	5	+4	10
4	Ebro	5	+3	10
5	Espanyol II	4	+10	9
6	Manresa	5	+6	9
7	Girona II	4	+2	7
8	Tudelano	5	+1	7
9	Terrassa	4	+1	7
10	Peña Sport	5	−1	7
11	Barbastro	5	0	6
12	Utebo	5	0	6
13	Reddis	5	−4	6
14	UD Logroñés II	5	−2	5
15	Calamocha	5	−10	3
16	SD Logroñés	5	−7	2
17	Náxara	4	−7	1
18	Arnedo	5	−13	0