Tudelano v Reddis prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Tudelano 1–3 Reddis TUDELANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tudelano win~~56%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.026

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tudelano win56%

Draw25%

Reddis win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tudelano

Reddis

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tudelano	5	+1	7
13	Reddis	5	−4	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tudelano winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

56% The market42%

Us56%

~~Market~~42%

We make Tudelano a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tudelano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tudelano win	56%	42%	+14
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Reddis win	19%	29%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	48%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	69%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	25%	+2
Tudelano or draw	81%	71%	+10
Tudelano clean sheet	41%	–	–
Reddis clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.3 6.2 3.0 1 12.1 11.5 4.9 2 10.6 9.2 4.2 3 6.1 5.3 2.4 4 2.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tudelano down, Reddis across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,578 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tudelano at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Reddis away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Tudelano, 0.90 for Reddis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

TUDELANO

WDLWWL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

REDDIS

LLWWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	6	+12	16
2	Osasuna II	6	+6	13
3	Ebro	6	+5	13
4	Manresa	6	+6	10
5	Olot	5	+4	10
6	Espanyol II	4	+10	9
7	Girona II	4	+2	7
8	Tudelano	5	+1	7
9	Terrassa	4	+1	7
10	Utebo	6	0	7
11	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
12	Barbastro	5	0	6
13	Reddis	5	−4	6
14	UD Logroñés II	5	−2	5
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1