Tudelano v Barbastro prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Tudelano 1–1 Barbastro TUDELANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tudelano win~~50%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.823

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.778

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tudelano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tudelano 50%, draw 28%, Barbastro 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Tudelano v BarbastroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tudelano win50%

Draw28%

Barbastro win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tudelano

Barbastro

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tudelano	7	−1	8
13	Barbastro	7	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tudelano winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Tudelano a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tudelano v Barbastro~~1.49 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~10 v 13

~~The market · Tudelano win~~44% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tudelano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tudelano win	50%	44%	+6
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Barbastro win	22%	27%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Tudelano or draw	78%	73%	+5
Tudelano clean sheet	41%	–	–
Barbastro clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 10.2 7.7 3.8 1 12.9 12.7 5.5 2 10.0 8.9 4.0 3 5.0 4.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tudelano down, Barbastro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,592 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tudelano at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Barbastro away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Tudelano, 0.90 for Barbastro. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–2 TUD · TUD 2–1 BAR · BAR 0–0 TUD · TUD 0–0 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

TUDELANO

LWWLLD1–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

BARBASTRO

DLDDLD0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Terrassa	7	+5	14
4	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
5	Ebro	7	+4	13
6	Olot	7	+4	12
7	Manresa	7	+6	11
8	Girona II	7	+1	10
9	Reddis	7	−2	10
10	Tudelano	7	−1	8
11	Peña Sport	7	−2	8
12	UD Logroñés II	7	−4	8
13	Barbastro	7	−1	7
14	Utebo	7	−1	7
15	Náxara	6	−6	5
16	Calamocha	7	−12	4
17	SD Logroñés	7	−8	3
18	Arnedo	7	−13	2