Terrassa v UD Logroñés II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Terrassa 3–0 UD Logroñés II TERRASSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Terrassa win~~51%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Terrassa win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Terrassa was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–29–21
1′KICK-OFF Terrassa v UD Logroñés II
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Terrassa win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
43′We said Terrassa at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Terrassa win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Terrassa 0–0 UD Logroñés II
46′SECOND HALF Terrassa 0–0 UD Logroñés II
49′A goal for Terrassa on 49′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Terrassa 1–0 UD Logroñés II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Terrassa win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Terrassa win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
50′We published Terrassa at 51%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
50′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Terrassa win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
55′N. Arroyo scores for Terrassa on 48′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
59′We published Terrassa at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
61′Terrassa score on 61′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
61′We published Terrassa at 51%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Terrassa 2–0 UD Logroñés II
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Terrassa win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
78′We published Terrassa at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′Terrassa find the net on 80′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Terrassa 3–0 UD Logroñés II
85′Terrassa ahead on 79′ through A. Gutierrez. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Terrassa 3–0 UD Logroñés II
FTTerrassa 3–0 UD Logroñés II · Terrassa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Terrassa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Terrassa 51%, draw 29%, UD Logroñés II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Terrassa v UD Logroñés IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Terrassa win51%

Draw29%

UD Logroñés II win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Terrassa

UD Logroñés II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Terrassa	5	+1	8
10	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · terrassa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market61%

Us51%

~~Market~~61%

We make Terrassa a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Terrassa v UD Logroñés II~~1.42 – 0.78

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~9 v 10

~~The market · Terrassa win~~61% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Terrassa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Terrassa win	51%	61%	−10
Draw	29%	23%	+6
UD Logroñés II win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	51%	−14
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	64%	73%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	18%	31%	−13
Terrassa or draw	79%	85%	−6
Terrassa clean sheet	47%	–	–
UD Logroñés II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 12.5 8.3 3.5 1 15.1 12.4 4.7 2 10.9 8.1 3.2 3 5.3 3.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Terrassa down, UD Logroñés II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Terrassa at home: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). UD Logroñés II away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Terrassa, 0.78 for UD Logroñés II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

TERRASSA

WDWLD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

UD LOGROÑÉS II

DDLWLW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
4	Ebro	7	+4	13
5	Olot	7	+4	12
6	Manresa	7	+6	11
7	Girona II	6	+2	10
8	Reddis	7	−2	10
9	Terrassa	5	+1	8
10	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8
11	Tudelano	6	−1	7
12	Barbastro	7	−1	7
13	Utebo	7	−1	7
14	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1