Terrassa v Girona II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:30

Terrassa 1–0 Girona II TERRASSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Terrassa win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Terrassa win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Terrassa was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Terrassa v Girona II
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Terrassa win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Terrassa 0–0 Girona II
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Terrassa win 38%)
46′SECOND HALF Terrassa 0–0 Girona II
50′We said Terrassa at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–47–21
60′We said Terrassa at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Terrassa win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
69′We said Terrassa at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
72′Terrassa score on 72′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′We published Terrassa at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Terrassa 1–0 Girona II
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Terrassa win: 46% at kick-off, 85% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Terrassa win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 62%)
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Terrassa win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
80′We published Terrassa at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
87′We published Terrassa at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Terrassa win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
95′A red card for Girona II on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Girona II
FTFULL TIME Terrassa 1–0 Girona II
FTTerrassa 1–0 Girona II · Terrassa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Terrassa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Terrassa 46%, draw 27%, Girona II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Terrassa v Girona IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Terrassa win46%

Draw27%

Girona II win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Terrassa

Girona II

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Terrassa	6	+4	11
8	Girona II	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · terrassa winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make Terrassa a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Terrassa v Girona II~~1.49 – 1.09

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~7 v 8

~~The market · Terrassa win~~55% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Terrassa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Terrassa win	46%	55%	−9
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Girona II win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Terrassa or draw	73%	81%	−8
Terrassa clean sheet	35%	–	–
Girona II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.9 7.7 4.5 1 10.7 12.6 6.4 2.4 2 8.4 8.7 4.7 3 4.2 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Terrassa down, Girona II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Terrassa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Girona II away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Terrassa, 1.09 for Girona II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TER 0–0 GIR · GIR 4–2 TER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

TERRASSA

WDWLDW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

GIRONA II

LWDWLW3–4 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
4	Ebro	7	+4	13
5	Olot	7	+4	12
6	Manresa	7	+6	11
7	Terrassa	6	+4	11
8	Girona II	6	+2	10
9	Reddis	7	−2	10
10	Tudelano	7	−1	8
11	Peña Sport	7	−2	8
12	UD Logroñés II	7	−4	8
13	Barbastro	7	−1	7
14	Utebo	7	−1	7
15	Náxara	6	−6	5
16	Calamocha	7	−12	4
17	SD Logroñés	7	−8	3
18	Arnedo	7	−13	2