SD Logroñés v Náxara prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

SD Logroñés 1–1 Náxara SD LOGROÑÉS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SD Logroñés win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SD Logroñés win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: SD Logroñés was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
1′KICK-OFF SD Logroñés v Náxara
6′Náxara score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–53
6′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–53
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' SD Logroñés 0–1 Náxara
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' SD Logroñés win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Náxara win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was SD Logroñés win 22%)
11′5′: J. Blanco Lopez on the scoresheet for Náxara, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–54
17′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' SD Logroñés win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 16–26–58
34′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–59
37′SD Logroñés find the net on 36′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–40–21
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' SD Logroñés 1–1 Náxara
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' SD Logroñés win: 48% at kick-off, 40% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Náxara win 20%)
45′HALF-TIME SD Logroñés 1–1 Náxara
46′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–44–19
46′SECOND HALF SD Logroñés 1–1 Náxara
51′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
60′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–16
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' SD Logroñés win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' SD Logroñés win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' SD Logroñés win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
85′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–88–5
90′We said SD Logroñés at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME SD Logroñés 1–1 Náxara
FTSD Logroñés 1–1 Náxara · SD Logroñés win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SD Logroñés are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SD Logroñés 48%, draw 29%, Náxara 23%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on SD Logroñés v NáxaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SD Logroñés win48%

Draw29%

Náxara win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

VenueEstadio Las Gaunas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SD Logroñés

Náxara

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sd logroñés winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make SD Logroñés a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SD Logroñés v Náxara~~1.37 – 0.84

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~17 v 15

~~The market · SD Logroñés win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SD Logroñés win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SD Logroñés win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Náxara win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
SD Logroñés or draw	77%	78%	−1
SD Logroñés clean sheet	43%	–	–
Náxara clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 11.9 8.6 3.9 1 14.3 13.0 5.2 2 10.2 8.4 3.6 3 4.7 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SD Logroñés down, Náxara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SD Logroñés at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Náxara away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for SD Logroñés, 0.84 for Náxara. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAX 2–0 SDL · SDL 2–0 NAX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

SD LOGROÑÉS

LDDLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–1

NÁXARA

LLLDW0–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
4	Ebro	7	+4	13
5	Olot	7	+4	12
6	Manresa	7	+6	11
7	Girona II	6	+2	10
8	Reddis	7	−2	10
9	Terrassa	5	+1	8
10	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8
11	Tudelano	6	−1	7
12	Barbastro	7	−1	7
13	Utebo	7	−1	7
14	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1