Peña Sport v Reddis prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Peña Sport 1–1 Reddis REDDIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Reddis win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reddis win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Reddis was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Peña Sport v Reddis
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Reddis win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Peña Sport 0–0 Reddis
46′SECOND HALF Peña Sport 0–0 Reddis
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Reddis win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–47–29
56′We said Reddis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 24–47–28
60′A goal for Reddis on 60′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–77
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Peña Sport 0–1 Reddis
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Reddis win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Reddis win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 51%)
61′We published Reddis at 40%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 4–18–77
66′We published Reddis at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
66′A. Camara scores for Reddis on 59′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Reddis win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
75′We published Reddis at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
80′Peña Sport score on 79′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–77–12
80′We said Reddis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 11–77–12
80′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 11–77–12
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Peña Sport 1–1 Reddis
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Reddis win: 40% at kick-off, 12% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Reddis win 88%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Reddis win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Reddis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
90′We said Reddis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Peña Sport 1–1 Reddis
FTPeña Sport 1–1 Reddis · Reddis win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reddis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Peña Sport 33%, draw 27%, Reddis 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Peña Sport v ReddisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Peña Sport win33%

Draw27%

Reddis win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Peña Sport

Reddis

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Reddis	7	−2	10
11	Peña Sport	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reddis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Reddis a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Peña Sport v Reddis~~1.21 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~11 v 9

~~The market · Reddis win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reddis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peña Sport win	33%	33%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Reddis win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	68%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	26%	24%	+2
Peña Sport or draw	60%	61%	−1
Peña Sport clean sheet	27%	–	–
Reddis clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.9 9.6 7.0 3.4 1 8.9 12.5 7.7 3.7 2 5.9 7.2 4.6 2.1 3 2.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peña Sport down, Reddis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,592 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Peña Sport at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Reddis away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Peña Sport, 1.38 for Reddis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

PEÑA SPORT

LWLWLD0–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

REDDIS

LWWLWD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Terrassa	7	+5	14
4	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
5	Ebro	7	+4	13
6	Olot	7	+4	12
7	Manresa	7	+6	11
8	Girona II	7	+1	10
9	Reddis	7	−2	10
10	Tudelano	7	−1	8
11	Peña Sport	7	−2	8
12	UD Logroñés II	7	−4	8
13	Barbastro	7	−1	7
14	Utebo	7	−1	7
15	Náxara	6	−6	5
16	Calamocha	7	−12	4
17	SD Logroñés	7	−8	3
18	Arnedo	7	−13	2