Osasuna II v Olot prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Osasuna II 0–0 Olot OSASUNA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Osasuna II win~~51%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.882

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Osasuna II win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Osasuna II was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Osasuna II v Olot
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Osasuna II win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Osasuna II 0–0 Olot
46′SECOND HALF Osasuna II 0–0 Olot
47′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–22
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Osasuna II win 37%)
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–44–20
58′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Osasuna II win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
66′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
72′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Osasuna II win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
77′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
81′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Osasuna II win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
92′We said Osasuna II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Osasuna II 0–0 Olot
FTOsasuna II 0–0 Olot · Osasuna II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Osasuna II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Osasuna II 51%, draw 25%, Olot 24%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Osasuna II v OlotBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Osasuna II win51%

Draw25%

Olot win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

VenueTajonar Facilities Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Osasuna II

Olot

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Osasuna II	6	+6	13
5	Olot	6	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · osasuna ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off

51% The market41%

Us51%

~~Market~~41%

We make Osasuna II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Osasuna II v Olot~~1.73 – 1.11

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~2 v 5

~~The market · Osasuna II win~~41% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Osasuna II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Osasuna II win	51%	41%	+10
Draw	25%	31%	−6
Olot win	24%	28%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	39%	+14
Both teams to score	54%	46%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	64%	+13
Over 3.5 goals	32%	20%	+12
Osasuna II or draw	76%	72%	+4
Osasuna II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Olot clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.1 6.2 3.7 1 9.7 11.5 6.0 2.3 2 8.6 9.1 5.0 3 5.0 5.2 2.9 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Osasuna II down, Olot across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,582 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Osasuna II at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olot away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Osasuna II, 1.11 for Olot. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

OSASUNA II

WWWLWD1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0

OLOT

DWLWWD2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	6	+12	16
2	Osasuna II	6	+6	13
3	Ebro	6	+5	13
4	Espanyol II	5	+11	12
5	Olot	6	+4	11
6	Manresa	6	+6	10
7	Reddis	6	−2	9
8	Terrassa	5	+1	8
9	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8
10	Girona II	5	+1	7
11	Utebo	6	0	7
12	Tudelano	6	−1	7
13	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
14	Barbastro	6	−1	6
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1