Olot v Terrassa prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Olot 1–1 Terrassa OLOT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Olot win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.818

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.716

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olot win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olot was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
2′Much as we predicted: Olot was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
44′A goal for Terrassa on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
45′45′ and it is 1–1: Olot have scored. 1–1 · 37–41–22
48′44′ and it is 1–1: Rai on the scoresheet for Olot. 1–1 · 36–43–21
50′44′ and it is 1–1: Rai on the scoresheet for Olot. 1–1 · 35–44–21
69′We said Olot at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
85′We said Olot at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–5
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said Olot at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Olot win: 48% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Olot 1–1 Terrassa
FTOlot 1–1 Terrassa · Olot win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olot win48%

Draw27%

Terrassa win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olot

Terrassa

7Days since last match15

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Olot	5	+4	10
9	Terrassa	4	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olot winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Olot a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olot win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olot win	48%	38%	+10
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Terrassa win	25%	31%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	39%	+5
Both teams to score	47%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	64%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	20%	+4
Olot or draw	75%	69%	+6
Olot clean sheet	39%	–	–
Terrassa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.9 8.0 4.2 1 12.1 12.5 5.8 2 9.2 8.6 4.2 3 4.6 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olot down, Terrassa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,578 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Olot at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Terrassa away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Olot, 0.98 for Terrassa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

OLOT

DWLWW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–2

TERRASSA

WDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	6	+12	16
2	Osasuna II	6	+6	13
3	Ebro	6	+5	13
4	Manresa	6	+6	10
5	Olot	5	+4	10
6	Espanyol II	4	+10	9
7	Girona II	4	+2	7
8	Tudelano	5	+1	7
9	Terrassa	4	+1	7
10	Utebo	6	0	7
11	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
12	Barbastro	5	0	6
13	Reddis	5	−4	6
14	UD Logroñés II	5	−2	5
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1