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Manresa v Osasuna II

Manresa

0–0Full time

Osasuna II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Manresa 0–0 Osasuna II MANRESA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manresa win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.767

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manresa win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Manresa v Osasuna II
2′Much as we predicted: Manresa was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–32
9′Much as we predicted: Manresa was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
45′HALF-TIME Manresa 0–0 Osasuna II
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Manresa win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Draw 33%)
46′SECOND HALF Manresa 0–0 Osasuna II
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Manresa win 34%)
FTFULL TIME Manresa 0–0 Osasuna II
FTManresa 0–0 Osasuna II · Manresa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Manresa win42%

Draw26%

Osasuna II win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manresa winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Manresa a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · manresa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manresa win	42%	40%	+3
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Osasuna II win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	51%	48%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	28%	+2
Manresa or draw	68%	68%	0
Manresa clean sheet	30%	–	–
Osasuna II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 7.7 5.1 2.2 1 9.2 12.0 7.1 3.0 2 7.2 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manresa down, Osasuna II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,573 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Manresa at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Osasuna II away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Manresa, 1.26 for Osasuna II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

MANRESA

WWLLW4–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1

OSASUNA II

WWWWLW2–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	5	+11	13
2	Osasuna II	5	+6	12
3	Olot	5	+4	10
4	Ebro	5	+3	10
5	Espanyol II	4	+10	9
6	Manresa	5	+6	9
7	Girona II	4	+2	7
8	Tudelano	5	+1	7
9	Terrassa	4	+1	7
10	Peña Sport	5	−1	7
11	Barbastro	5	0	6
12	Utebo	5	0	6
13	Reddis	5	−4	6
14	UD Logroñés II	5	−2	5
15	Calamocha	5	−10	3
16	SD Logroñés	5	−7	2
17	Náxara	4	−7	1
18	Arnedo	5	−13	0