Girona II v Espanyol II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Girona II 1–2 Espanyol II GIRONA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Girona II win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Girona II win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Girona II v Espanyol II
5′Little has changed for our model: Girona II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
8′Little has changed for our model: Girona II 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Girona II 0–1 Espanyol II
45′HALF-TIME Girona II 0–1 Espanyol II
45′⚽ GOAL · 30' Girona II 0–1 Espanyol II · J. A. Lopez
46′SECOND HALF Girona II 0–1 Espanyol II
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Girona II 0–2 Espanyol II
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Girona II 1–2 Espanyol II
FTFULL TIME Girona II 1–2 Espanyol II
FTGirona II 1–2 Espanyol II · Girona II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Girona II win42%

Draw23%

Espanyol II win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Girona II

Espanyol II

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Espanyol II	4	+10	9
7	Girona II	4	+2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · girona ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make Girona II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · girona ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Girona II win	42%	34%	+7
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Espanyol II win	35%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	53%	+13
Both teams to score	66%	57%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	85%	75%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	44%	32%	+12
Girona II or draw	65%	61%	+3
Girona II clean sheet	21%	–	–
Espanyol II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.2 5.2 4.5 2.5 1 5.6 9.8 7.4 4.1 2 5.3 8.0 6.4 3.5 3 3.2 4.8 3.8 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Girona II down, Espanyol II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,578 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Girona II at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Espanyol II away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Girona II, 1.64 for Espanyol II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

GIRONA II

LWDW3–4 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

ESPANYOL II

WWLW2–1 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	6	+12	16
2	Osasuna II	6	+6	13
3	Ebro	6	+5	13
4	Manresa	6	+6	10
5	Olot	5	+4	10
6	Espanyol II	4	+10	9
7	Girona II	4	+2	7
8	Tudelano	5	+1	7
9	Terrassa	4	+1	7
10	Utebo	6	0	7
11	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
12	Barbastro	5	0	6
13	Reddis	5	−4	6
14	UD Logroñés II	5	−2	5
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1