Calamocha v Peña Sport

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Calamocha win at 47%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Calamocha 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
3. 1′KICK-OFF Calamocha v Peña Sport
4. 23′Peña Sport find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
5. 23′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Calamocha 0–1 Peña Sport
7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Calamocha win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
8. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Peña Sport win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Calamocha win 21%)
9. 27′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–57
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 19–24–58
11. 33′Calamocha are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 18–24–59
12. 33′🟥 RED CARD · 33' Calamocha
13. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Calamocha win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
14. 43′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
15. 45′HALF-TIME Calamocha 0–1 Peña Sport
16. 46′SECOND HALF Calamocha 0–1 Peña Sport
17. 56′A goal for Calamocha on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–44–22
18. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Calamocha 1–1 Peña Sport
19. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Calamocha win: 47% at kick-off, 33% now
20. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Peña Sport win 22%)
21. 57′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–45–22
22. 64′N. Gomes scores for Calamocha on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–51–20
23. 64′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
24. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Calamocha win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
25. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Calamocha win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
26. 85′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
27. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Calamocha win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
28. 91′We said Calamocha at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
29. FTFULL TIME Calamocha 1–1 Peña Sport
30. FTCalamocha 1–1 Peña Sport · Calamocha win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.