Barcelona B v Utebo prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Barcelona B 2–1 Utebo BARCELONA B WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barcelona B win~~50%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona B win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Barcelona B was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
1′KICK-OFF Barcelona B v Utebo
7′A goal for Barcelona B on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
7′We published Barcelona B at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Barcelona B 1–0 Utebo
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Barcelona B win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
44′We published Barcelona B at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Barcelona B win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Barcelona B 1–0 Utebo
46′SECOND HALF Barcelona B 1–0 Utebo
66′We published Barcelona B at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′Barcelona B score on 72′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′We published Barcelona B at 50%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Barcelona B 2–0 Utebo
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Barcelona B win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We published Barcelona B at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Barcelona B win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
90′Utebo find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Barcelona B 2–1 Utebo
FTFULL TIME Barcelona B 2–1 Utebo
FTBarcelona B 2–1 Utebo · Barcelona B win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barcelona B are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barcelona B 50%, draw 27%, Utebo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Barcelona B v UteboBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barcelona B win50%

Draw27%

Utebo win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

VenueEstadi Johan Cruyff

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barcelona B

Utebo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barcelona b winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off

50% The market74%

Us50%

~~Market~~74%

We make Barcelona B a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 24 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barcelona B v Utebo~~1.53 – 0.93

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~1 v 11

~~The market · Barcelona B win~~74% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barcelona B win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barcelona B win	50%	74%	−24
Draw	27%	18%	+9
Utebo win	23%	8%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	44%	60%	−16
Both teams to score	47%	45%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	80%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	24%	40%	−16
Barcelona B or draw	77%	92%	−15
Barcelona B clean sheet	40%	–	–
Utebo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.6 7.4 3.8 1 12.4 12.4 5.5 2 9.9 8.9 4.2 3 5.1 4.6 2.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barcelona B down, Utebo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,582 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Barcelona B at home: 3.33 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 3). Utebo away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Barcelona B, 0.93 for Utebo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

BARCELONA B

WDWWWW5–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

UTEBO

DDWLDD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	6	+12	16
2	Osasuna II	6	+6	13
3	Ebro	6	+5	13
4	Espanyol II	5	+11	12
5	Olot	6	+4	11
6	Manresa	6	+6	10
7	Reddis	6	−2	9
8	Terrassa	5	+1	8
9	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8
10	Girona II	5	+1	7
11	Utebo	6	0	7
12	Tudelano	6	−1	7
13	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
14	Barbastro	6	−1	6
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1