Barbastro v Manresa prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Barbastro 0–0 Manresa BARBASTRO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barbastro win~~36%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.726

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.748

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barbastro win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barbastro 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
1′KICK-OFF Barbastro v Manresa
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Barbastro win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Barbastro 0–0 Manresa
46′SECOND HALF Barbastro 0–0 Manresa
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Barbastro win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
57′We said Barbastro at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
68′We said Barbastro at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Barbastro win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
75′We said Barbastro at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
82′We said Barbastro at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Barbastro win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
89′We said Barbastro at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Barbastro 0–0 Manresa
FTBarbastro 0–0 Manresa · Barbastro win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Barbastro just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Barbastro 36%, draw 30%, Manresa 33%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Barbastro v ManresaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barbastro win36%

Draw30%

Manresa win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barbastro

Manresa

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Manresa	6	+6	10
14	Barbastro	6	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barbastro winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market41%

Us36%

~~Market~~41%

We make Barbastro a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barbastro v Manresa~~1.12 – 1.07

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~14 v 6

~~The market · Barbastro win~~41% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barbastro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barbastro win	36%	41%	−5
Draw	30%	30%	0
Manresa win	33%	29%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Barbastro or draw	67%	71%	−4
Barbastro clean sheet	35%	–	–
Manresa clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.4 11.3 6.4 2.3 1 11.9 13.6 6.9 2.5 2 7.0 7.2 3.9 3 2.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barbastro down, Manresa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Barbastro at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Manresa away: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Barbastro, 1.07 for Manresa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

BARBASTRO

WDLDDL4–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

MANRESA

WWLLWD4–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Ebro	7	+4	13
4	Espanyol II	5	+11	12
5	Olot	7	+4	12
6	Manresa	6	+6	10
7	Girona II	6	+2	10
8	Reddis	6	−2	9
9	Terrassa	5	+1	8
10	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8
11	Tudelano	6	−1	7
12	Utebo	7	−1	7
13	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
14	Barbastro	6	−1	6
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1