Arnedo v Tudelano prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Arnedo 2–2 Tudelano TUDELANO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tudelano win~~56%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.953

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tudelano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arnedo 22%, draw 23%, Tudelano 56%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Arnedo v TudelanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arnedo win22%

Draw23%

Tudelano win56%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arnedo

Tudelano

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Tudelano	6	−1	7
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tudelano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market51%

Us56%

~~Market~~51%

We make Tudelano a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arnedo v Tudelano~~1.09 – 1.94

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~18 v 11

~~The market · Tudelano win~~51% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tudelano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arnedo win	22%	22%	0
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Tudelano win	56%	51%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	47%	+10
Both teams to score	55%	50%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	70%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	36%	27%	+9
Arnedo or draw	44%	49%	−5
Arnedo clean sheet	16%	–	–
Tudelano clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.9 9.0 8.8 5.8 3.0 1 5.2 10.6 9.2 5.9 3.0 2 3.2 5.5 5.0 3.1 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arnedo down, Tudelano across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arnedo at home: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tudelano away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Arnedo, 1.94 for Tudelano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARN 0–2 TUD · TUD 1–0 ARN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ARNEDO

LLLLLD1–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 0–0

TUDELANO

DLWWLL0–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona B	7	+13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	+6	14
3	Espanyol II	6	+11	13
4	Ebro	7	+4	13
5	Olot	7	+4	12
6	Manresa	7	+6	11
7	Girona II	6	+2	10
8	Reddis	7	−2	10
9	Terrassa	5	+1	8
10	UD Logroñés II	6	−1	8
11	Tudelano	6	−1	7
12	Barbastro	7	−1	7
13	Utebo	7	−1	7
14	Peña Sport	6	−2	7
15	Náxara	5	−6	4
16	Calamocha	6	−12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	−8	2
18	Arnedo	6	−13	1