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Sestao River v Gimnástica Torrelavega

Sestao River

0–0Full time

Gimnástica Torrelavega

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Las Llanas

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Sestao River 0–0 Gimnástica Torrelavega SESTAO RIVER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sestao River win~~51%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.869

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sestao River win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sestao River 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Sestao River v Gimnástica Torrelavega
2′Little has changed for our model: Sestao River 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Sestao River 0–0 Gimnástica Torrelavega
46′SECOND HALF Sestao River 0–0 Gimnástica Torrelavega
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Sestao River win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
FTFULL TIME Sestao River 0–0 Gimnástica Torrelavega
FTSestao River 0–0 Gimnástica Torrelavega · Sestao River win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sestao River win51%

Draw26%

Gimnástica Torrelavega win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Estadio Las Llanas

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sestao river winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

51% The market54%

Us51%

~~Market~~54%

We make Sestao River a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sestao river win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sestao River win	51%	54%	−2
Draw	26%	26%	−1
Gimnástica Torrelavega win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	48%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Sestao River or draw	77%	80%	−3
Sestao River clean sheet	39%	–	–
Gimnástica Torrelavega clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 8.4 7.6 3.7 1 12.3 11.9 5.7 2 9.7 9.1 4.4 3 5.1 4.8 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sestao River down, Gimnástica Torrelavega across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sestao River at home: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Gimnástica Torrelavega away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Sestao River, 0.96 for Gimnástica Torrelavega. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

SESTAO RIVER

WWLWW1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

GIMNÁSTICA TORRELAVEGA

LWLLDL0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	5	+7	12
3	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
4	Sestao River	5	+4	12
5	Ourense CF	5	+2	10
6	Gernika	5	+7	8
7	Basconia	5	+1	8
8	Amorebieta	5	+1	7
9	Portugalete	5	−1	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Marino de Luanco	5	−2	6
12	Coruxo	5	−1	5
13	Compostela	5	−3	4
14	Gimnástica Torrelavega	5	−4	4
15	Llanera	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Astorga	5	−2	3
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1