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Sestao River v Arosa
Sestao RiverArosaSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Las Llanas
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sestao River win at 54%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Sestao River 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Sestao River v Arosa
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sestao River win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
- 44′We said Sestao River at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–38–20
- 45′A goal for Sestao River on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 45′We said Sestao River at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sestao River 1–0 Arosa
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sestao River win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Sestao River 1–0 Arosa
- 46′SECOND HALF Sestao River 1–0 Arosa
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sestao River win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
- 67′We said Sestao River at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 78′We said Sestao River at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Sestao River win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
- 86′We said Sestao River at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- FTFULL TIME Sestao River 1–0 Arosa
- FTSestao River 1–0 Arosa · Sestao River win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Sestao River are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sestao River 54%, draw 24%, Arosa 22%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Sestao River win54%Arosa win22%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30
RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8
VenueEstadio Las Llanas
Match timeline
All events
Sestao RiverMINArosaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sestao River
Arosa
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sestao River | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 13 | Arosa | 7 | −4 | 7 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sestao River a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 56%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao River win | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Arosa win | 22% | 17% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Sestao River or draw | 78% | 83% | −5 |
| Sestao River clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Arosa clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept
SESTAO RIVER
AROSA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 |  Bergantiños | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 |  Eibar II | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Portugalete | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 |  Compostela | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 |  Amorebieta | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 |  Ourense CF | 7 | −3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Real Oviedo II | 7 | −4 | 10 |
| 10 |  Gernika | 7 | +6 | 9 |
| 11 |  Basconia | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Coruxo | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 13 | Arosa | 7 | −4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Llanera | 7 | −6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Atlético Astorga | 7 | −1 | 6 |
| 16 |  Marino de Luanco | 7 | −5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Racing Santander II | 8 | −7 | 5 |
| 18 |  Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | −8 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.