Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 › Real Oviedo II v Racing Santander II

Real Oviedo II v Racing Santander II

Real Oviedo II

2–1Full time

Racing Santander II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Real Oviedo II 2–1 Racing Santander II REAL OVIEDO II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Oviedo II win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.464

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Oviedo II win at 45%.
2′Much as we predicted: Real Oviedo II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–32
11′Real Oviedo II find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
21′Real Oviedo II ahead on 8′ through J. Coballes. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
22′Real Oviedo II ahead on 8′ through J. Coballes. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
38′We published Real Oviedo II at 45%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–10
43′We published Real Oviedo II at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–9
45′HALF-TIME Real Oviedo II 1–0 Racing Santander II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
46′SECOND HALF Real Oviedo II 1–0 Racing Santander II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Real Oviedo II win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Real Oviedo II 2–0 Racing Santander II
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Real Oviedo II 2–1 Racing Santander II
FTFULL TIME Real Oviedo II 2–1 Racing Santander II
FTReal Oviedo II 2–1 Racing Santander II · Real Oviedo II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Oviedo II win45%

Draw24%

Racing Santander II win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Oviedo II

Racing Santander II

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real oviedo ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Real Oviedo II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real oviedo ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Oviedo II win	45%	51%	−7
Draw	24%	26%	−3
Racing Santander II win	32%	22%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	61%	49%	+12
Both teams to score	62%	52%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	82%	72%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	39%	29%	+10
Real Oviedo II or draw	68%	78%	−10
Real Oviedo II clean sheet	24%	–	–
Racing Santander II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.6 5.9 4.4 2.1 1 7.2 10.5 7.4 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.3 3.0 3 3.7 5.1 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Oviedo II down, Racing Santander II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Oviedo II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Santander II away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Real Oviedo II, 1.44 for Racing Santander II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RAC 1–0 REA · REA 0–0 RAC · REA 2–2 RAC · RAC 5–1 REA

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

REAL OVIEDO II

WWLLDW3–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–1

RACING SANTANDER II

WLDLLL4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Sestao River	6	+4	13
4	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
7	Basconia	6	+1	9
8	Gernika	5	+7	8
9	Amorebieta	6	0	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Llanera	6	−3	7
12	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
13	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
14	Coruxo	5	−1	5
15	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
16	Compostela	5	−3	4
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1