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Racing Santander II v Basconia

Racing Santander II

3–1Full time

Basconia

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Racing Santander II 3–1 Basconia RACING SANTANDER II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Racing Santander II win~~47%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Santander II win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Racing Santander II 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
1′KICK-OFF Racing Santander II v Basconia
9′Little has changed for our model: Racing Santander II 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
45′HALF-TIME Racing Santander II 0–0 Basconia
46′SECOND HALF Racing Santander II 0–0 Basconia
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Racing Santander II win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
53′Racing Santander II find the net on 52′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
53′We said Racing Santander II at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Racing Santander II 1–0 Basconia
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Racing Santander II win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Racing Santander II win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
60′A goal for Racing Santander II on 60′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
60′We said Racing Santander II at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Racing Santander II 2–0 Basconia
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Racing Santander II win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
61′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
66′Basconia score on 66′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Racing Santander II 2–1 Basconia
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Racing Santander II win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
67′We said Racing Santander II at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
69′Racing Santander II find the net on 69′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Racing Santander II 3–1 Basconia
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Racing Santander II win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
83′We said Racing Santander II at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Racing Santander II 3–1 Basconia
FTRacing Santander II 3–1 Basconia · Racing Santander II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Santander II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Santander II 47%, draw 23%, Basconia 30%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Racing Santander II v BasconiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Racing Santander II win47%

Draw23%

Basconia win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Santander II

Basconia

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Basconia	6	+1	9
18	Racing Santander II	6	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing santander ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off

47% The market33%

Us47%

~~Market~~33%

We make Racing Santander II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Santander II v Basconia~~1.84 – 1.41

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 9~~18 v 9

~~The market · Racing Santander II win~~33% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Racing Santander II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Santander II win	47%	33%	+14
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Basconia win	30%	40%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	56%	+7
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	78%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	41%	35%	+6
Racing Santander II or draw	70%	60%	+10
Racing Santander II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Basconia clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 5.4 3.9 1 7.0 10.1 7.0 3.3 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.0 5.5 3.9 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Santander II down, Basconia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Racing Santander II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Basconia away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Racing Santander II, 1.41 for Basconia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

RACING SANTANDER II

LDLLLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2

BASCONIA

LWDWDD1–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
8	Gernika	6	+7	9
9	Basconia	6	+1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	0	7
11	Compostela	6	−2	7
12	Llanera	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
15	Coruxo	6	−2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	−9	1