Ourense CF v Coruxo prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Ourense CF 0–1 Coruxo OURENSE CF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ourense CF win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.822

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.914

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ourense CF win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ourense CF 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–26
1′KICK-OFF Ourense CF v Coruxo
12′A goal for Coruxo on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–25–58
12′We said Ourense CF at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–58
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ourense CF 0–1 Coruxo
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Ourense CF win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Coruxo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Ourense CF win 18%)
26′We said Ourense CF at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Ourense CF win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
45′We said Ourense CF at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
45′HALF-TIME Ourense CF 0–1 Coruxo
46′SECOND HALF Ourense CF 0–1 Coruxo
64′We said Ourense CF at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Ourense CF win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Ourense CF 0–1 Coruxo
FTOurense CF 0–1 Coruxo · Ourense CF win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ourense CF are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ourense CF 44%, draw 29%, Coruxo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Ourense CF v CoruxoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ourense CF win44%

Draw29%

Coruxo win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

VenueEstadio de O Couto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ourense CF

Coruxo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
15	Coruxo	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ourense cf winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Ourense CF a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ourense CF v Coruxo~~1.27 – 0.90

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~7 v 15

~~The market · Ourense CF win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ourense CF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ourense CF win	44%	49%	−5
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Coruxo win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Ourense CF or draw	74%	77%	−3
Ourense CF clean sheet	41%	–	–
Coruxo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 12.0 10.2 4.7 1 14.2 13.0 5.8 2 9.1 8.0 3.6 3 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ourense CF down, Coruxo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ourense CF at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Coruxo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Ourense CF, 0.90 for Coruxo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OUR 5–1 COR · COR 2–1 OUR · COR 1–1 OUR · OUR 0–2 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

OURENSE CF

WWLWDL2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–4

CORUXO

WDLDLL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
8	Gernika	6	+7	9
9	Basconia	6	+1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	0	7
11	Compostela	6	−2	7
12	Llanera	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
15	Coruxo	6	−2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	−9	1