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Marino de Luanco v Sestao River
Marino de Luanco
Sestao RiverSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Marino de Luanco win at 37%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Marino de Luanco was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
- 1′KICK-OFF Marino de Luanco v Sestao River
- 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Marino de Luanco win 33%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Marino de Luanco 0–0 Sestao River
- 46′SECOND HALF Marino de Luanco 0–0 Sestao River
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Marino de Luanco win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
- 53′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–53–22
- 55′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
- 66′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Marino de Luanco win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
- 74′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–12
- 81′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Marino de Luanco win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
- 88′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 91′Sestao River find the net on 90′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
- 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River
- 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Sestao River win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
- FTFULL TIME Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River
- FTMarino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River · Marino de Luanco win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Marino de Luanco are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Marino de Luanco 37%, draw 32%, Sestao River 31%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Marino de Luanco win37%
Sestao River win31%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00
RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7
Match timeline
All events
Marino de LuancoMIN
Sestao RiverEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Marino de Luanco
Sestao River
Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Federacion
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Marino de Luanco a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marino de Luanco win | 37% | 25% | +12 |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Sestao River win | 31% | 44% | −13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 39% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 45% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 20% | −7 |
| Marino de Luanco or draw | 69% | 56% | +13 |
| Marino de Luanco clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| Sestao River clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept
MARINO DE LUANCO
SESTAO RIVER
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantiños | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 2 | Eibar II | 7 | +7 | 14 |
| 3 | Deportivo Alavés II | 6 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Compostela | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Amorebieta | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo II | 6 | −1 | 10 |
| 9 | Ourense CF | 7 | −3 | 10 |
| 10 | Gernika | 7 | +6 | 9 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 13 | Llanera | 6 | −3 | 7 |
| 14 | Atlético Astorga | 7 | −1 | 6 |
| 15 | Marino de Luanco | 6 | −4 | 6 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 6 | −4 | 5 |
| 17 | Arosa | 6 | −7 | 4 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 7 | −7 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Bergantiños
Eibar II
Deportivo Alavés II
Portugalete
Compostela
Amorebieta
Real Oviedo II
Ourense CF
Gernika
Basconia
Coruxo
Llanera
Atlético Astorga
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Arosa
Racing Santander II