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Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 › Marino de Luanco v Sestao River

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Marino de Luanco v Sestao River

Marino de Luanco
0–1Full time
Sestao River

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River MARINO DE LUANCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Marino de Luanco win37%
The market said25%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.715
The market’s Brier score0.470

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Marino de Luanco win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Marino de Luanco was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Marino de Luanco v Sestao River
  4. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Marino de Luanco win 33%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Marino de Luanco 0–0 Sestao River
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Marino de Luanco 0–0 Sestao River
  7. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Marino de Luanco win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 53′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–53–22
  9. 55′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
  10. 66′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
  11. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Marino de Luanco win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  12. 74′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–12
  13. 81′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  14. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Marino de Luanco win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  15. 88′We said Marino de Luanco at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  16. 91′Sestao River find the net on 90′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
  17. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River
  18. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Sestao River win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  19. FTFULL TIME Marino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River
  20. FTMarino de Luanco 0–1 Sestao River · Marino de Luanco win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marino de Luanco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marino de Luanco 37%, draw 32%, Sestao River 31%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Marino de Luanco v Sestao RiverBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marino de Luanco win37%
Draw32%
Sestao River win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marino de Luanco

Sestao River

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Federacion

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Sestao River6+413
15Marino de Luanco6−46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marino de luanco winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market25%
Us37%
Market25%

We make Marino de Luanco a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Marino de Luanco v Sestao River1.01 – 0.90
Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 6 v 1315 v 4
The market · Marino de Luanco win25% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 15:47
Our probability · Marino de Luanco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Marino de Luanco win37%25%+12
Draw32%31%+1
Sestao River win31%44%−13
Over 2.5 goals30%39%−9
Both teams to score37%45%−8
Over 1.5 goals57%63%−6
Over 3.5 goals13%20%−7
Marino de Luanco or draw69%56%+13
Marino de Luanco clean sheet41%––
Sestao River clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%
0123450 15.3 13.1 6.0 1 14.7 13.4 5.9 2 7.6 6.6 3.0 3 2.6 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Marino de Luanco down, Sestao River across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

MARINO DE LUANCO

WLLLWL3–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4

SESTAO RIVER

WWLWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bergantiños6+714
2Eibar II7+714
3Deportivo Alavés II6+613
4Sestao River6+413
5Portugalete7011
6Compostela7+110
7Amorebieta7+110
8Real Oviedo II6−110
9Ourense CF7−310
10Gernika7+69
11Basconia7−19
12Coruxo7−18
13Llanera6−37
14Atlético Astorga7−16
15Marino de Luanco6−46
16Gimnástica Torrelavega6−45
17Arosa6−74
18Racing Santander II7−74

The competition's standings before kick-off.