Marino de Luanco v Real Oviedo II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Marino de LuancoDrawReal Oviedo II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Marino de Luanco 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marino de Luanco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marino de Luanco 40%, draw 30%, Real Oviedo II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Marino de Luanco v Real Oviedo IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Marino de Luanco win40%

Draw30%

Real Oviedo II win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marino de Luanco

Real Oviedo II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Real Oviedo II	7	−4	10
16	Marino de Luanco	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marino de luanco winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Marino de Luanco a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marino de Luanco v Real Oviedo II~~1.17 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~16 v 10

~~The market · Marino de Luanco win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Marino de Luanco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marino de Luanco win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Real Oviedo II win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	25%	−8
Marino de Luanco or draw	70%	64%	+6
Marino de Luanco clean sheet	38%	–	–
Real Oviedo II clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 12.0 11.2 5.6 1 13.3 13.3 6.5 2.2 2 7.9 7.7 3.8 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marino de Luanco down, Real Oviedo II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marino de Luanco at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Oviedo II away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Marino de Luanco, 0.98 for Real Oviedo II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAR 1–1 REA · REA 1–1 MAR · MAR 1–0 REA · REA 1–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

MARINO DE LUANCO

LLLWLL0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 0–1

REAL OVIEDO II

LLDWWL0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sestao River	8	+6	19
2	Deportivo Alavés II	8	+10	17
3	Bergantiños	8	+9	17
4	Eibar II	8	+8	17
5	Compostela	8	+3	13
6	Amorebieta	8	+2	13
7	Portugalete	7	0	11
8	Gernika	8	+6	10
9	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
10	Real Oviedo II	7	−4	10
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	8	−2	8
13	Atlético Astorga	8	−1	7
14	Arosa	8	−5	7
15	Llanera	8	−8	7
16	Marino de Luanco	7	−5	6
17	Racing Santander II	8	−7	5
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	7	−8	5