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Llanera v Marino de Luanco

Llanera

4–2Full time

Marino de Luanco

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Llanera 4–2 Marino de Luanco MARINO DE LUANCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marino de Luanco win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.693

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marino de Luanco win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Marino de Luanco 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 32–30–37
7′Little has changed for our model: Marino de Luanco 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 32–32–37
22′14′ and it is 1–0: A. Turmo on the scoresheet for Llanera. 1–0 · 66–23–11
31′14′ and it is 1–0: A. Turmo on the scoresheet for Llanera. 1–0 · 67–23–10
45′Llanera ahead on 34′ through D. Mendy. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
46′SECOND HALF Llanera 2–0 Marino de Luanco
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Llanera win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Marino de Luanco win 1%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Llanera win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Marino de Luanco win 1%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Llanera win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Marino de Luanco win 1%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Llanera win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Marino de Luanco win 1%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Llanera win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Marino de Luanco win 1%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Llanera 2–1 Marino de Luanco
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Marino de Luanco win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Llanera win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Marino de Luanco win 1%)
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Llanera
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco
82′⚽ GOAL · 14' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · A. Turmo
82′⚽ GOAL · 34' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · D. Mendy
82′⚽ GOAL · 52' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · A. Menendez
82′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Llanera
82′⚽ GOAL · 79' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco
85′⚽ GOAL · 14' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · A. Turmo
85′⚽ GOAL · 34' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · D. Mendy
85′⚽ GOAL · 52' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · A. Menendez
85′🟥 RED CARD · 66' D. Mendy · Llanera
85′⚽ GOAL · 78' Llanera 3–1 Marino de Luanco · D. Collado
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Llanera 3–2 Marino de Luanco
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Llanera 4–2 Marino de Luanco
FTFULL TIME Llanera 4–2 Marino de Luanco
FTLlanera 4–2 Marino de Luanco · Marino de Luanco win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Llanera win32%

Draw30%

Marino de Luanco win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marino de luanco winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Marino de Luanco a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · marino de luanco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llanera win	32%	40%	−8
Draw	30%	28%	+3
Marino de Luanco win	38%	32%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	35%	49%	−14
Both teams to score	41%	54%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	61%	72%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	16%	28%	−12
Llanera or draw	62%	68%	−5
Llanera clean sheet	34%	–	–
Marino de Luanco clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.9 13.5 7.4 2.8 1 12.2 13.4 7.2 2.7 2 6.1 6.5 3.6 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llanera down, Marino de Luanco across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llanera at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Marino de Luanco away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Llanera, 1.09 for Marino de Luanco. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LLA 3–2 MAR · MAR 3–1 LLA · LLA 0–2 MAR · MAR 1–0 LLA

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

LLANERA

LLLLWD0–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–1

MARINO DE LUANCO

LWLLLW0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	5	+7	12
3	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
4	Sestao River	5	+4	12
5	Ourense CF	5	+2	10
6	Gernika	5	+7	8
7	Basconia	5	+1	8
8	Amorebieta	5	+1	7
9	Portugalete	5	−1	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Marino de Luanco	5	−2	6
12	Coruxo	5	−1	5
13	Compostela	5	−3	4
14	Gimnástica Torrelavega	5	−4	4
15	Llanera	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Astorga	5	−2	3
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1