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Llanera v Compostela

Llanera

1–3Full time

Compostela

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Llanera 1–3 Compostela COMPOSTELA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Compostela win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.573

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Compostela win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Compostela was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Llanera v Compostela
24′A goal for Compostela on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
24′We published Compostela at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 12–21–68
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Llanera 0–1 Compostela
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Compostela win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
37′We published Compostela at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
39′Compostela score on 39′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Llanera 0–2 Compostela
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Compostela win: 38% at kick-off, 91% now
40′We published Compostela at 38%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
45′HALF-TIME Llanera 0–2 Compostela
46′SECOND HALF Llanera 0–2 Compostela
56′We published Compostela at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Compostela win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
80′Llanera find the net on 80′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–89
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Llanera 1–2 Compostela
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Compostela win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–10–90
86′A goal for Compostela on 85′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′We published Compostela at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Llanera 1–3 Compostela
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Compostela win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Llanera 1–3 Compostela
FTLlanera 1–3 Compostela · Compostela win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Compostela just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Llanera 35%, draw 27%, Compostela 38%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Llanera v CompostelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Llanera win35%

Draw27%

Compostela win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llanera

Compostela

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
14	Llanera	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · compostela winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Compostela a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llanera v Compostela~~1.25 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~14 v 6

~~The market · Compostela win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Compostela win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llanera win	35%	36%	−1
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Compostela win	38%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Llanera or draw	62%	65%	−3
Llanera clean sheet	27%	–	–
Compostela clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 9.9 6.7 3.0 1 9.4 12.5 8.1 3.6 2 6.0 7.7 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llanera down, Compostela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llanera at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Compostela away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Llanera, 1.33 for Compostela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LLA 1–1 COM · COM 1–0 LLA · COM 0–1 LLA · LLA 1–2 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

LLANERA

LLWDWL1–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–4

COMPOSTELA

DWLLWW0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Alavés II	8	+10	17
2	Bergantiños	8	+9	17
3	Eibar II	8	+8	17
4	Sestao River	7	+5	16
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
9	Real Oviedo II	7	−4	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Arosa	7	−4	7
14	Llanera	7	−6	7
15	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
16	Marino de Luanco	7	−5	6
17	Racing Santander II	8	−7	5
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	7	−8	5