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Gimnástica Torrelavega v Deportivo Alavés II

Gimnástica Torrelavega

1–5Full time

Deportivo Alavés II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–5 Deportivo Alavés II DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Alavés II win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.542

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Alavés II win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Alavés II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Gimnástica Torrelavega v Deportivo Alavés II
8′A goal for Deportivo Alavés II on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–19–67
8′We published Deportivo Alavés II at 40%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 14–19–67
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gimnástica Torrelavega 0–1 Deportivo Alavés II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Deportivo Alavés II win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
18′Deportivo Alavés II score on 18′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Gimnástica Torrelavega 0–2 Deportivo Alavés II
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Deportivo Alavés II win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
19′We published Deportivo Alavés II at 40%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–2 · 4–9–88
20′Gimnástica Torrelavega find the net on 19′. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–20–68
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Deportivo Alavés II win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–20–69
35′A goal for Deportivo Alavés II on 34′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–90
35′We published Deportivo Alavés II at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–3 · 2–7–90
35′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–90
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–3 Deportivo Alavés II
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Deportivo Alavés II win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
42′Deportivo Alavés II score on 41′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–2–98
42′We published Deportivo Alavés II at 40%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–4 · 0–2–98
42′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–2–98
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–4 Deportivo Alavés II
45′HALF-TIME Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–4 Deportivo Alavés II
46′SECOND HALF Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–4 Deportivo Alavés II
54′A red card for Gimnástica Torrelavega on 53′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–4 · 0–1–99
54′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Gimnástica Torrelavega
56′Deportivo Alavés II find the net on 55′. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
56′We published Deportivo Alavés II at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–5 · 0–0–100
56′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–5 Deportivo Alavés II
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Deportivo Alavés II win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Gimnástica Torrelavega 1–5 Deportivo Alavés II
FTGimnástica Torrelavega 1–5 Deportivo Alavés II · Deportivo Alavés II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Alavés II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnástica Torrelavega 34%, draw 26%, Deportivo Alavés II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Gimnástica Torrelavega v Deportivo Alavés IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gimnástica Torrelavega win34%

Draw26%

Deportivo Alavés II win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnástica Torrelavega

Deportivo Alavés II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo alavés ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Deportivo Alavés II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimnástica Torrelavega v Deportivo Alavés II~~1.29 – 1.42

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~16 v 3

~~The market · Deportivo Alavés II win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Alavés II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnástica Torrelavega win	34%	26%	+8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Deportivo Alavés II win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	43%	+8
Both teams to score	54%	49%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	67%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	24%	+5
Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw	60%	55%	+5
Gimnástica Torrelavega clean sheet	25%	–	–
Deportivo Alavés II clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.2 9.4 6.7 3.2 1 8.5 12.2 8.4 4.0 2 5.5 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnástica Torrelavega down, Deportivo Alavés II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Alavés II away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega, 1.42 for Deportivo Alavés II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

GIMNÁSTICA TORRELAVEGA

WLLDLD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS II

LWWWWD0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	7	+7	14
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
9	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Llanera	6	−3	7
14	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
15	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	7	−7	4