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Gernika v Amorebieta

Gernika

1–2Full time

Amorebieta

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Gernika 1–2 Amorebieta GERNIKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gernika win~~48%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.860

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gernika win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gernika 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Gernika v Amorebieta
24′Gernika score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′We said Gernika at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Gernika 1–0 Amorebieta
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Gernika win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Gernika win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Gernika 1–0 Amorebieta
46′SECOND HALF Gernika 1–0 Amorebieta
53′We said Gernika at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
69′We said Gernika at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Gernika win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
78′We said Gernika at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′Gernika are down to ten from 85′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′We said Gernika at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Gernika
87′Amorebieta find the net on 87′. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–89–5
87′We said Gernika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–89–5
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Gernika 1–1 Amorebieta
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gernika win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Gernika win 7%)
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' J. Ortiz · Gernika
91′We said Gernika at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
93′A goal for Amorebieta on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Gernika 1–2 Amorebieta
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Amorebieta win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Gernika 1–2 Amorebieta
FTGernika 1–2 Amorebieta · Gernika win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gernika are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gernika 48%, draw 26%, Amorebieta 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Gernika v AmorebietaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gernika win48%

Draw26%

Amorebieta win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gernika

Amorebieta

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Gernika	6	+7	9
10	Amorebieta	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gernika winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make Gernika a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gernika v Amorebieta~~1.49 – 1.00

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~8 v 10

~~The market · Gernika win~~41% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gernika win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gernika win	48%	41%	+7
Draw	26%	31%	−5
Amorebieta win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	40%	+5
Both teams to score	48%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	64%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	21%	+3
Gernika or draw	75%	72%	+3
Gernika clean sheet	37%	–	–
Amorebieta clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.9 8.2 4.2 1 12.2 12.3 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 8.9 4.4 3 4.6 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gernika down, Amorebieta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gernika at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Amorebieta away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Gernika, 1.00 for Amorebieta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AMO 1–2 GER · GER 1–0 AMO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

GERNIKA

DWWDLD2–2 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

AMOREBIETA

DLWLWL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
8	Gernika	6	+7	9
9	Basconia	6	+1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	0	7
11	Compostela	6	−2	7
12	Llanera	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
15	Coruxo	6	−2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	−9	1