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Eibar II v Basconia

Eibar II

1–1Full time

Basconia

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:11

Eibar II 1–1 Basconia EIBAR II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Eibar II win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eibar II win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eibar II was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Eibar II v Basconia
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Eibar II 0–1 Basconia
22′A goal for Basconia on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–26–53
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Eibar II win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Basconia win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Eibar II win 21%)
43′We said Eibar II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
45′HALF-TIME Eibar II 0–1 Basconia
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–61
46′SECOND HALF Eibar II 0–1 Basconia
67′We said Eibar II at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–72
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Eibar II win: 51% at kick-off, 5% now
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Eibar II 1–1 Basconia
87′71′ and it is 1–1: Eibar II have scored. 1–1 · 5–92–3
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Basconia win 3%)
FTFULL TIME Eibar II 1–1 Basconia
FTEibar II 1–1 Basconia · Eibar II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Eibar II win51%

Draw25%

Basconia win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eibar ii winPublished 10 Oct 11:44

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Eibar II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eibar II win	51%	51%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Basconia win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Eibar II or draw	75%	77%	−2
Eibar II clean sheet	35%	–	–
Basconia clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.2 7.1 3.8 1 10.9 11.5 6.0 2.2 2 8.9 9.2 4.9 3 5.0 5.1 2.7 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eibar II down, Basconia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Eibar II at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Basconia away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Eibar II, 1.06 for Basconia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

EIBAR II

LWWWW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 5–1

BASCONIA

LWDWD1–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	5	+7	12
3	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
4	Sestao River	5	+4	12
5	Ourense CF	5	+2	10
6	Gernika	5	+7	8
7	Basconia	5	+1	8
8	Amorebieta	5	+1	7
9	Portugalete	5	−1	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Marino de Luanco	5	−2	6
12	Coruxo	5	−1	5
13	Compostela	5	−3	4
14	Gimnástica Torrelavega	5	−4	4
15	Llanera	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Astorga	5	−2	3
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1