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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 › Deportivo Alavés II v Racing Santander II

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Deportivo Alavés II v Racing Santander II

Deportivo Alavés II
3–3Full time
Racing Santander II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04
Deportivo Alavés II 3–3 Racing Santander II DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Deportivo Alavés II win53%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.966
The market’s Brier score1.049

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Alavés II win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Alavés II 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Alavés II v Racing Santander II
  4. 15′Racing Santander II score on 15′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 28–23–50
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Deportivo Alavés II 0–1 Racing Santander II
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Deportivo Alavés II win: 53% at kick-off, 28% now
  7. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Racing Santander II win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Deportivo Alavés II win 50%)
  8. 16′We said Deportivo Alavés II at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–23–50
  9. 23′14′: M. Solorzano Diestro on the scoresheet for Racing Santander II, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 25–23–51
  10. 26′We said Deportivo Alavés II at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–52
  11. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Deportivo Alavés II win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 23–24–53
  13. 36′Deportivo Alavés II find the net on 35′. 1–1. 1–1 · 46–29–25
  14. 36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 Racing Santander II
  15. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Deportivo Alavés II win: 53% at kick-off, 46% now
  16. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Deportivo Alavés II win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Racing Santander II win 54%)
  17. 37′A goal for Racing Santander II on 37′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 20–25–55
  18. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Deportivo Alavés II 1–2 Racing Santander II
  19. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Deportivo Alavés II win: 53% at kick-off, 20% now
  20. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Racing Santander II win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Deportivo Alavés II win 46%)
  21. 40′We said Deportivo Alavés II at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–25–56
  22. 45′J. Bita scores for Racing Santander II on 36′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 17–25–57
  23. 45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Alavés II 1–2 Racing Santander II
  24. 46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Alavés II 1–2 Racing Santander II
  25. 52′We said Deportivo Alavés II at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
  26. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Deportivo Alavés II win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  27. 60′Racing Santander II score on 59′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–89
  28. 60′We said Deportivo Alavés II at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–8–89
  29. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Deportivo Alavés II 1–3 Racing Santander II
  30. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Deportivo Alavés II win: 53% at kick-off, 2% now
  31. 61′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–8–90
  32. 85′Deportivo Alavés II find the net on 85′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–10–89
  33. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Deportivo Alavés II 2–3 Racing Santander II
  34. 86′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–10–90
  35. 89′Deportivo Alavés II pull one back on 84′ through H. Martinez. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–93
  36. 93′A goal for Deportivo Alavés II on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 3–94–2
  37. 93′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 3–94–2
  38. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Deportivo Alavés II 3–3 Racing Santander II
  39. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Racing Santander II win 96%)
  40. FTFULL TIME Deportivo Alavés II 3–3 Racing Santander II
  41. FTDeportivo Alavés II 3–3 Racing Santander II · Deportivo Alavés II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Alavés II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Alavés II 53%, draw 21%, Racing Santander II 26%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Alavés II v Racing Santander IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Alavés II win53%
Draw21%
Racing Santander II win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Alavés II

Racing Santander II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Deportivo Alavés II7+1016
18Racing Santander II7−74

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo alavés ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
53% The market64%
Us53%
Market64%

We make Deportivo Alavés II a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo Alavés II v Racing Santander II2.09 – 1.42
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 SeptW5 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 16 v 42 v 18
The market · Deportivo Alavés II win64% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:21
Our probability · Deportivo Alavés II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo Alavés II win53%64%−11
Draw21%21%0
Racing Santander II win26%15%+11
Over 2.5 goals67%57%+10
Both teams to score66%51%+15
Over 1.5 goals86%79%+7
Over 3.5 goals46%37%+9
Deportivo Alavés II or draw74%85%−11
Deportivo Alavés II clean sheet25%––
Racing Santander II clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%
0123450 3.4 4.3 3.1 1 6.3 9.0 6.2 3.0 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.6 6.3 4.4 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Alavés II down, Racing Santander II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS II

WWWWDW2–1 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 5–1

RACING SANTANDER II

DLLLLW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bergantiños7+1017
2Deportivo Alavés II7+1016
3Sestao River7+516
4Eibar II7+714
5Portugalete7011
6Compostela7+110
7Amorebieta7+110
8Ourense CF7−310
9Real Oviedo II7−410
10Gernika7+69
11Basconia7−19
12Coruxo7−18
13Arosa7−47
14Llanera7−67
15Atlético Astorga7−16
16Marino de Luanco7−56
17Gimnástica Torrelavega7−85
18Racing Santander II7−74

The competition's standings before kick-off.