Deportivo Alavés II v Gernika prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 Gernika DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportivo Alavés II win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Alavés II win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Alavés II 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Alavés II v Gernika
9′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Alavés II 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–31
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Alavés II 0–0 Gernika
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Alavés II 0–0 Gernika
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Deportivo Alavés II 1–0 Gernika
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 Gernika
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 Gernika
FTDeportivo Alavés II 1–1 Gernika · Deportivo Alavés II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportivo Alavés II win43%

Draw25%

Gernika win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportivo Alavés II

Gernika

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
8	Gernika	5	+7	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo alavés ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make Deportivo Alavés II a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo alavés ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Alavés II win	43%	48%	−5
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Gernika win	32%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	54%	42%	+12
Both teams to score	57%	47%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	78%	66%	+12
Over 3.5 goals	32%	22%	+10
Deportivo Alavés II or draw	68%	77%	−8
Deportivo Alavés II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Gernika clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 7.3 4.9 2.1 1 8.8 11.5 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.7 5.6 2.5 3 3.7 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Alavés II down, Gernika across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Deportivo Alavés II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Gernika away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Deportivo Alavés II, 1.30 for Gernika. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS II

LWWWW0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 2–0

GERNIKA

DWWDL2–2 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Sestao River	6	+4	13
4	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
7	Basconia	6	+1	9
8	Gernika	5	+7	8
9	Amorebieta	6	0	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Llanera	6	−3	7
12	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
13	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
14	Coruxo	5	−1	5
15	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
16	Compostela	5	−3	4
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1