Coruxo v Compostela prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Coruxo 0–1 Compostela CORUXO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Coruxo win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Coruxo win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Coruxo 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Coruxo v Compostela
2′Little has changed for our model: Coruxo 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
45′HALF-TIME Coruxo 0–0 Compostela
46′SECOND HALF Coruxo 0–0 Compostela
55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Coruxo
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Coruxo 0–1 Compostela
FTFULL TIME Coruxo 0–1 Compostela
FTCoruxo 0–1 Compostela · Coruxo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Coruxo win45%

Draw29%

Compostela win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Coruxo

Compostela

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Coruxo	5	−1	5
16	Compostela	5	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coruxo winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Coruxo a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · coruxo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 50% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coruxo win	45%	47%	−2
Draw	29%	28%	0
Compostela win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Coruxo or draw	74%	75%	−1
Coruxo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Compostela clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 11.2 9.6 4.6 1 13.8 12.9 5.8 2 9.2 8.3 3.8 3 4.1 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coruxo down, Compostela across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.12 goals a meeting; 0 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coruxo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Compostela away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Coruxo, 0.92 for Compostela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.12

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~COR 2–0 COM · COM 1–0 COR · COR 0–0 COM · COM 1–0 COR

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

CORUXO

WWDLDL3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

COMPOSTELA

DLDWLL1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Sestao River	6	+4	13
4	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
7	Basconia	6	+1	9
8	Gernika	5	+7	8
9	Amorebieta	6	0	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Llanera	6	−3	7
12	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
13	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
14	Coruxo	5	−1	5
15	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
16	Compostela	5	−3	4
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1