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Compostela v Atlético Astorga

Compostela

4–1Full time

Atlético Astorga

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Compostela 4–1 Atlético Astorga COMPOSTELA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Compostela win~~40%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Compostela win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Compostela was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Compostela v Atlético Astorga
2′A goal for Compostela on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–12
2′We published Compostela at 40%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–12
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Compostela 1–0 Atlético Astorga
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Compostela win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
16′We published Compostela at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Compostela win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
22′Compostela score on 22′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
22′We published Compostela at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Compostela 2–0 Atlético Astorga
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Compostela win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
38′Compostela find the net on 38′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Compostela 3–0 Atlético Astorga
39′We published Compostela at 40%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
39′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Compostela 3–0 Atlético Astorga
46′SECOND HALF Compostela 3–0 Atlético Astorga
59′We published Compostela at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Compostela win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
72′A goal for Atlético Astorga on 72′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Compostela 3–1 Atlético Astorga
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
77′J. Hoyos scores for Atlético Astorga on 71′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′A red card for Atlético Astorga on 78′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Atlético Astorga
91′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Palomeque · Atlético Astorga
94′Compostela score on 90′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Compostela 4–1 Atlético Astorga
FTFULL TIME Compostela 4–1 Atlético Astorga
FTCompostela 4–1 Atlético Astorga · Compostela win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Compostela are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Compostela 40%, draw 28%, Atlético Astorga 32%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Compostela v Atlético AstorgaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Compostela win40%

Draw28%

Atlético Astorga win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Compostela

Atlético Astorga

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Compostela	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · compostela winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

40% The market56%

Us40%

~~Market~~56%

We make Compostela a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Compostela v Atlético Astorga~~1.26 – 1.09

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~11 v 13

~~The market · Compostela win~~56% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Compostela win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Compostela win	40%	56%	−16
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Atlético Astorga win	32%	17%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Compostela or draw	68%	83%	−15
Compostela clean sheet	34%	–	–
Atlético Astorga clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.1 10.2 5.7 2.1 1 11.8 13.1 7.0 2.6 2 7.6 8.1 4.4 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Compostela down, Atlético Astorga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Compostela at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Astorga away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Compostela, 1.09 for Atlético Astorga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

COMPOSTELA

LDWLLW0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

ATLÉTICO ASTORGA

LLWLLW0–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
8	Gernika	6	+7	9
9	Basconia	6	+1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	0	7
11	Compostela	6	−2	7
12	Llanera	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
15	Coruxo	6	−2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	−9	1