Bergantiños v Real Oviedo II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Bergantiños 3–0 Real Oviedo II BERGANTIÑOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bergantiños win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.414

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bergantiños win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bergantiños 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Bergantiños v Real Oviedo II
30′Bergantiños find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′We said Bergantiños at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Bergantiños 1–0 Real Oviedo II
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bergantiños win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
34′Bergantiños ahead on 28′ through Alex Pachon. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
45′HALF-TIME Bergantiños 1–0 Real Oviedo II
46′We said Bergantiños at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Bergantiños win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
47′SECOND HALF Bergantiños 1–0 Real Oviedo II
64′We said Bergantiños at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′A goal for Bergantiños on 68′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
68′We said Bergantiños at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bergantiños 2–0 Real Oviedo II
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Bergantiños win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
82′We said Bergantiños at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Bergantiños score on 90′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Bergantiños 3–0 Real Oviedo II
FTFULL TIME Bergantiños 3–0 Real Oviedo II
FTBergantiños 3–0 Real Oviedo II · Bergantiños win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bergantiños are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bergantiños 45%, draw 25%, Real Oviedo II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bergantiños v Real Oviedo IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bergantiños win45%

Draw25%

Real Oviedo II win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bergantiños

Real Oviedo II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bergantiños winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Bergantiños a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bergantiños v Real Oviedo II~~1.56 – 1.21

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~1 v 8

~~The market · Bergantiños win~~47% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bergantiños win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bergantiños win	45%	47%	−2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Real Oviedo II win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Bergantiños or draw	70%	75%	−5
Bergantiños clean sheet	30%	–	–
Real Oviedo II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.7 7.5 4.6 1 9.7 11.9 7.0 2.9 2 7.6 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 4.0 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bergantiños down, Real Oviedo II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bergantiños at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Oviedo II away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Bergantiños, 1.21 for Real Oviedo II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–2 BER · BER 1–2 REA · REA 3–1 BER · BER 0–2 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BERGANTIÑOS

DWWWWD2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

REAL OVIEDO II

WLLDWW2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	7	+7	14
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
9	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Llanera	6	−3	7
14	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
15	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	7	−7	4