Basconia v Portugalete prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BasconiaDrawPortugalete

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Basconia 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Basconia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Basconia 41%, draw 27%, Portugalete 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Basconia v PortugaleteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Basconia win41%

Draw27%

Portugalete win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Basconia

Portugalete

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
11	Basconia	7	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · basconia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Basconia a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Basconia v Portugalete~~1.36 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~11 v 5

~~The market · Basconia win~~42% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Basconia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Basconia win	41%	42%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Portugalete win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Basconia or draw	68%	69%	−1
Basconia clean sheet	32%	–	–
Portugalete clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 9.2 5.4 2.1 1 10.8 12.6 7.1 2.8 2 7.4 8.4 4.8 3 3.4 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Basconia down, Portugalete across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Basconia at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Portugalete away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Basconia, 1.16 for Portugalete. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POR 3–3 BAS · BAS 1–1 POR · BAS 0–3 POR · POR 2–1 BAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

BASCONIA

WDWDDL3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

PORTUGALETE

DWLLWD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Alavés II	8	+10	17
2	Bergantiños	8	+9	17
3	Eibar II	8	+8	17
4	Sestao River	7	+5	16
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
9	Real Oviedo II	7	−4	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Arosa	7	−4	7
14	Llanera	7	−6	7
15	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
16	Marino de Luanco	7	−5	6
17	Racing Santander II	8	−7	5
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	7	−8	5