Atlético Astorga v Gernika prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Atlético Astorga 1–1 Gernika ATLÉTICO ASTORGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atlético Astorga win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atlético Astorga just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Astorga 38%, draw 26%, Gernika 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Astorga v GernikaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Astorga win38%

Draw26%

Gernika win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Astorga

Gernika

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
15	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético astorga winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Atlético Astorga a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Astorga v Gernika~~1.39 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~15 v 10

~~The market · Atlético Astorga win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético Astorga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Astorga win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Gernika win	36%	41%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	47%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	26%	+4
Atlético Astorga or draw	64%	59%	+5
Atlético Astorga clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gernika clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.9 8.6 6.0 2.7 1 8.8 12.1 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.1 5.5 2.5 3 2.9 3.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Astorga down, Gernika across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Atlético Astorga at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gernika away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Atlético Astorga, 1.35 for Gernika. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

ATLÉTICO ASTORGA

LWLLWL2–3 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–4

GERNIKA

WWDLDL4–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Alavés II	8	+10	17
2	Bergantiños	8	+9	17
3	Eibar II	8	+8	17
4	Sestao River	7	+5	16
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
9	Real Oviedo II	7	−4	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Arosa	7	−4	7
14	Llanera	7	−6	7
15	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
16	Marino de Luanco	7	−5	6
17	Racing Santander II	8	−7	5
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	7	−8	5